Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Chicago Flash Flooding

On the early morning of July 23, a powerful storm swept through the Chicago, IL area bringing almost seven inches of rain to parts of Cook and DuPage Counties in less than six hours. Lightning strikes brought down power lines and heavy rains flooded homes, businesses, public facilities, and area roads and highways.
Open source media reported flooding in Winnetka, Glencoe, Northfield, Mount Prospect and Palatine, IL. Des Plains, IL was reported as one of the hardest hit communities. The mayor of Des Plains declared a state of emergency due to the flooding. River conditions are improving for the DuPage and Des Plains Rivers, although some areas remain at minor to moderate flood stage.

As of the evening of July 24, open source media reported approximately 9,000 customers continue to experience power outage down from the peaks of storm outages of 160,000 customers.

No evacuations were reported and there are no unmet needs for FEMA assistance.

Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND

Current Situation
As of 4:00 a.m. EDT on July 25, the Souris River at Minot was below action stage (1548 feet) at 1,547.1 feet and is forecast to continue to decline.

Significant National Weather

High Heat and Humidity Continues Over the Central U.S.
Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories are in effect for parts of the Central U.S. Hot temperatures, combined with the high humidity levels, will create heat indices between 100 to 115 degrees during the afternoon hours.

South:
Hotter-than-average temperatures will continue across the Southern Plains. The hot temperatures combined with high dew points will create heat indices above 100 degrees over portions of the Central U.S. Daytime heating and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will produce a chance showers and thunderstorms along the Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast through Tuesday. Locally heavy rain is possible. Central and southern parts of Texas should remain dry. Temperatures will be nearly 10 degrees above average for the Southern Plains. Highs will be in the 80s & 90s in the Southeast, 90s and 100s in the Southern Plains.

Midwest:
A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Northern High Plains today with storms becoming more numerous and intense tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Regions. Heavy rain is possible for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Carolina Coast. Temperatures will be nearly 10 degrees above average for the Upper Mississippi. Highs will generally be near or above average across the region and range from around 80 in northern Minnesota and northern Michigan to the 100s in southern Kansas.

Northeast:
A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is possible in northern Pennsylvania, much of New York, and far western parts of New England. The heaviest rainfall is expected to be in northern and eastern New York and Northern New England. Temperatures will generally be near seasonal averages today. Highs will mostly be in the 70s and 80s, with some 90s near Chesapeake & Delaware Bays.

West:
Continued monsoonal moisture and moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Dora will produce showers and afternoon thunderstorms for Southern and Central Rockies and the Great Basin into Monday evening. Upper trough moving through the Northwest will bring some showers and storms to the interior Northwest today and the Northern High Plains tonight. Some severe storms are possible tonight from the Northern Rockies into the High Plains. Much of the Plains will be hotter than average Highs will range from around 60 along the Northern California Coast to the 110s in Death Valley.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico  

Area 1 (Invest 90L) - At 2:00 a.m. EDT on July 25, disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas are associated with a tropical wave. Significant development of this wave is not expected during the next couple of days as it moves generally westward near 20 mph and interacts with land. This system has a low chance (10%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds could spread westward across Cuba and the central Bahamas during the next day or so.

Eastern Pacific  

Remnant Low Dora (Final) - At 5:00 p.m. EDT July 24, Tropical Storm Dora, downgraded to a remnant low, was last located 150 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lazanro, Mexico and is moving northwest at 8 mph. Dora is expected to turn north-northwest and decrease in forward speed until the system dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are have decreased to near 30 mph with higher gusts. Dora is expected to weaken to a Tropical Depression and then degenerate today. The remnant low is forecast to continue weakening and dissipating over the next few days.

Central Pacific  

No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday afternoon.

Western Pacific

No significant tropical cyclone activity impacting U.S. interest.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Sunday, July 24, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (143 new fires)
New Large Fires: 5
Large Fires Contained: 6
Uncontained Large Fires: 20
Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
Type 2 IMT Committed: 5
States affected: GA, NC, TX, OK, NM, AZ, CA, WY, ID, UT, NV & AK.

Wildfires
South Carolina
Hornet Fire, Myrtle Beach (Horry County)
The fire caused by fireworks began on July 3, initially burned 805 acres and was contained. However on July 22, the fire escaped containment. As of July 3, a total of 1,500 acres of private lands have been consumed and the fire is 45% contained. Boggy terrain is reducing effectiveness of fire attack. Approximately 1,200 residences were threatened in and around Myrtle Beach, NC. No evacuations ordered and no shelters are open.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary

The flood waters have reached a steady state throughout most of the basin and the focus is on monitoring and reinforcing existing levees. Fort Peck, Garrison, Oahe, and Big Bend Dams reductions in releases have led to declining water levels and less water moving downstream.

There have been no new levee breaches or overtoppings in Region VII since July 11, 2011. There are potential overtopping concerns on 4 Federal and 13 non-Federal levees in the basin. These levees are forecast to have less than 2’ of freeboard.

The State of Missouri and local/federal partners will discuss flood fight concerns on Monday, July 25, 2011. Additionally, daily coordination calls will be reduced to three times a week (Monday, Wednesday, and Friday).

Missouri River Basin Reservoir Releases
Dam Releases projected for Thursday, July 21:

• Fort Peck: 35,000 cfs
• Garrison: 120,000 cfs
• Oahe: 140,000 cfs
• Big Bend: 137,200 cfs
• Fort Randall: 156,000 cfs
• Gavins Point: 160,000 cfs (On Monday, August 1, 2011 Gavins Point is expected to reduce releases from 160,000 cfs to 150,000 cfs and maintain this new release rate through at least August 12, 2011; additional releases thereafter from Gavins Point are still to be determined.)

Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND

Current Situation
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT on July 22, the Souris River at Minot was below flood stage at 1,548.5 feet and is forecast to remain below flood stage for the forecast period. Evacuation zones have reopened and residents have begun returning home. Boil water orders continue to be lifted in the previously effected boil zones. USACE contractors have removed 249 tons of debris. The Broadway Bridge in Minot remains open from 7:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m. CDT.
North Dakota
Three shelters were open with 362 (-8) occupants.

Significant National Weather

A dangerous heat wave continues across much of the central and eastern U.S.

Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories are in effect for much of the central U.S. and Ohio River Valley as well as areas from the eastern Carolinas northward into southern New England. High temperatures combined with oppressive humidity levels will create heat indices between 105 to 120 degrees during the afternoon hours. See www.weather.gov/largemap.php 

West:
Precipitation will be limited to some rain and thunderstorm activity in western Washington, northern Idaho and eastern Montana associated with a cold front. The Southwest Monsoon will bring scattered afternoon thunderstorms to Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for western Utah. The desert Southwest will see temperatures in excess of 100 degrees this afternoon.

Midwest:
Two fronts draped across the region will produce severe thunderstorms from eastern Montana to the Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary threats. There is the possibility of flash flooding, primarily in North Dakota, but other areas will see significant precipitation and the Upper Mississippi Valley could receive an inch or more of rain. Temperatures will range from the 80s to over 100.

South:
High heat and humidity continue across the entire region. High temperatures will range from 90 to 100. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the entire region

Northeast:
High temperatures today should reach the 90s and 100s with 80s in northern New York and New England. Precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms should be limited to interior sections of the Mid Atlantic and northern New England.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico  

Tropical Depression Bret – At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Bret was located about 320 miles northwest of Bermuda, moving toward the northeast near 21 mph. This general motion and increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Bret is forecast to gradually weaken by tonight and dissipate in a day or so.

Tropical Storm Cindy - At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Cindy was located about 805 miles northwest of the Azores, moving toward the northeast near 29 mph. This motion is expected to continue the next couple of days until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast and Cindy should dissipate within the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. 

Area 1 - At 2:00 a.m. EDT, a Tropical Wave located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorm activity. Upper level winds are expected to gradually become a little more conducive for some slow development of this disturbance over the next couple of days. This system has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours, as it moves toward the west-northwest at 15-20 mph. Regardless of development, brief periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds associated with this wave could begin spreading across portions of the Lesser Antilles later today.

 

Eastern Pacific 

Hurricane Dora - At 2:00 a.m. EDT July 22, Category Three Hurricane Dora was located about 210 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico and moving northwest near 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora would remain offshore of the southern Baja California Peninsula, but Tropical Storm conditions could reach portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 120 mph with higher gusts; continued weakening is forecast through tonight. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center and Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.

Central Pacific  

No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday evening.

Western Pacific

Tropical Storm 08W (MA-ON) is dissipating and the final warning has been issued.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Thursday, July 21, 2011:

• National Preparedness Level: 2
• Initial attack activity: LIGHT (198 new fires)
• New Large Fires: 2
• Large Fires Contained: 2
• Uncontained Large Fires: 19
• Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
• Type 2 IMT Committed: 5
• States affected: NC, GA, TX, OK, AZ, NM, WY, CA, and ID.

Wildfires
No significant activity.

Disaster Declaration Activity

Massachusetts

• FEMA-1994-DR-MA; Amendment # 1, effective July 21, 2011, adds two Townships for Public Assistance.

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary

The flood waters have reached a steady state throughout most of the Missouri River Basin and the focus is on monitoring and reinforcing existing levees. Fort Peck, Garrison, Oahe, and Big Bend Dams reductions in releases have led to declining water levels and less water moving downstream. There have been 4 federal levee breaches or over-toppings and 13 non- federal levee breaches or overtoppings. There have been no new levee breaches or overtoppings in Region VII since July 11, 2011. The U.S. Coast Guard continues closure of the Missouri River for both commercial and recreational use. The river remains closed from mile 226.3, near Glasgow, MO, to mile 550 near Gavins Point Dam.

Missouri River Basin Reservoir Releases
Dam Releases projected for Thursday, July 21:

• Fort Peck: 35,000 cfs
• Garrison: 120,000 cfs
• Oahe: 140,000 cfs
• Big Bend: 140,000 cfs
• Fort Randall: 156,000 cfs
• Gavins Point: 160,000 cfs

Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND

Current Situation
As of 3:00 a.m. EDT on July 21, the Souris River at Minot was below flood stage at 1,548.63 feet and is forecast to remain below flood stage for the forecast period. USACE contractors have removed 220 tons of debris. Evacuation zones have reopened and residents have begun returning home. The Broadway Bridge in Minot remains open from 7:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m. CDT.

North Dakota
Three shelters were open with 370 (+2) occupants.

Significant National Weather

The heat wave continues to produce dangerous levels of heat and humidity. There are excessive heat warnings, heat watches and heat advisories in effect for much of the eastern half of the country.
See www.weather.gov/largemap.php 

West:
A front will produce precipitation including a few thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. The Southwest Monsoon will bring scattered afternoon thunderstorms to the Four Corners states - expect gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. The Southwest will see temperatures as high as 110 this afternoon.

Midwest:
The cold front dropping southward across the region will bring some relief from the heat for the northern half of the region but will produce a line of severe thunderstorms in the Central Plains. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary threats. South of the front, high temperatures will be in the 90s.

South:
High heat and humidity continue across the entire region. High temperatures will be in the 90s across the Southeast and in the upper 90s to near 105 in Oklahoma and Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas to the Southeast.

Northeast:
High heat and humidity will expand eastward into the Ohio Valley and East Coast states for the remainder of the week. High temperatures today should reach the 80s and 90s over much of the region with 100-degree plus readings in the Mid Atlantic states. Many areas will see rain and thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms are forecast for northern New England.
Tomorrow, temperatures in many areas will be in the upper 90s to near 105 with heat indices in the 100 to 115 degree range.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico  

Tropical Storm Bret – At 5:00 a.m. EDT July 21, Tropical Storm Bret was located about 260 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC, moving toward the northeast near 8 mph. Bret is likely to remain well offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States. This general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected until the cyclone dissipates in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Bret could weaken to a Tropical Depression or Remnant Low later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

Tropical Storm Cindy - At 5:00 a.m. EDT July 21, Tropical Storm Cindy was located about 975 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, moving toward the northeast near 28 mph. This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds near 60 mph with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 12-24 hours, and Cindy should weaken after it moves over increasingly colder water. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center.

Eastern Pacific 

Hurricane Dora - At 2:00 a.m. EDT July 21, Hurricane Dora was located about 210 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and moving west-northwest near 15 mph. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next 12 to 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph with higher gusts. Dora is a Category Four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours; weakening is expected to begin by Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.

Central Pacific  

No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday afternoon.

Western Pacific

Tropical Depression 08W (MA-ON) poses no threat to U.S. territories.

Earthquake Activity

At 2:20 a.m. EDT on Thursday, July 21, 2011, a magnitude 4.1 earthquake occurred in southern Alaska, 40 miles west of Happy Valley, Alaska, at a reported depth of 58.5 miles.  There have been no reports of injury or damage and no tsunami was generated.

Wildfire Update

Wednesday, July 20, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (198 new fires)
New Large Fires: 7
Large Fires Contained: 3
Uncontained Large Fires: 21
Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
Type 2 IMT Committed: 6
States affected: NC, GA, TX, OK, UT, NM, WY, and ID.

Wildfires
No significant activity.

Disaster Declaration Activity

Tennessee
On July 20, 2011, the President signed Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4005-DR for the State of Tennessee for Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding that occurred June 18-24, 2011. The declaration approves Public Assistance for six counties, and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

Minnesota
On July 20, 2011, the Governor requested a Major Disaster Declaration for the State of Minnesota as a result of severe storms, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding during the period of July 1-11, 2011. The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance for fourteen counties and the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe, and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

North Dakota
Amendment #7 to FEMA-1981-DR-North Dakota amends the Major Disaster Declaration to close the incident period for this disaster effective July 20.

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Midwest Power Outages

Severe Weather Outbreak
Strong thunderstorms impacted the Region yesterday, July 19, downing trees and knocking out power
Power outages were reported across multiple states.  Restoration continues with only Michigan (11,200 customers without power) and Illinois (3,100 customers without power) reporting significant outages.  Power should be fully restored today. 
There are no unmet needs, and no requests for federal assistance. (Region V, NWS) 

Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary

The U.S. Coast Guard continues closure of the Missouri River for both commercial and recreational use. At this time, the river remains closed from mile 226.3, near Glasgow, MO, to mile 550 near Gavins Point Dam.
There are potential concerns on 4 Federal and 14 non-Federal levees in the Missouri River Basin. These levees currently have less than two feet of freeboard. River rises due to high rainfall events in the basin could impact these levees.
USACE is constructing a 400 foot berm to protect a wastewater treatment plant in Bellevue, Nebraska.
Major road closures in the Missouri River Basin flood area include:
I-29 in Iowa (Exit 32 to US 136 Interchange in MO).
I-680 in Iowa (3 miles west of Crescent area and Exit 62; I-29; Old Mormon Bridge).
I-29 in Iowa (Council Bluffs) – between exit 54A; G Avenue (Carter Lake) and exit 71; I-680 (2 miles south of the Missouri Valley area).
I-680 into Iowa (Mormon Bridge Crossing) closed due to floodwaters covering roadway.

Missouri River Basin Flooding
Dam Releases projected for Wednesday, July 20:
Fort Peck: 35,000 cfs
Garrison: 120,000 cfs
Oahe: 140,000 cfs
Big Bend: 140,000 cfs
Fort Randall: 156,000 cfs
Gavins Point: 160,000 cfs

Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND

Current Situation
As of 1:00 a.m. EDT on July 20, the Souris River at Minot was below flood stage at 1,548.79 feet and is forecast to remain below flood stage for the forecast period.

Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs) remain open in Minot, ND (2) and Bismarck, ND (1). Two DRCs will open this week; one today in Berthold, ND and one in Sherwood, ND on Wednesday, July 20
.
North Dakota
Three shelters were open with 368 occupants as of midnight, July 18.

Significant National Weather

The heat wave that has been affecting much of the central U.S. continues to produce dangerous levels of heat and humidity. There are excessive heat warnings, heat watches and heat advisories in effect from the Plains to the East Coast. (See www.weather.gov/largemap.php ) with temperatures in many locations exceeding 90 degrees, but feeling like 100-110 degrees or higher with the high humidity factored in.

The large area of high pressure responsible for the excessive heat will expand eastward over the next several days, with high temperatures in the mid to upper-90s reaching the Mid-Atlantic states today, and nearing 100 degrees by Thursday across the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. Excessive heat is forecast to grip most of the eastern half of the country with the exception of the Northeast and southern Florida through at least the weekend.

West
Monsoonal moisture from the Pacific and Gulf of California is forecast to produce rain and thunderstorms from the Desert Southwest to the Central Plains.  Rain continues over the Pacific Northwest.  Highs will range from the 80s along the California Coast to the 100s in the deserts of southeastern California and southern Arizona.  Red Flag conditions are forecast from central California to Nevada with relative humidity in the lower teens. 

Midwest
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms likely to develop through early evening across much of the Region. Severe thunderstorms are possible across Northern Minnesota to the Great Lakes.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.  Highs continue to range from the 90s near the Great Lakes to low 100s in southwestern Kansas and central South Dakota.

South
Rain and thunderstorms are forecast from Texas into the Southeast.  Some storms will be capable of producing microbursts and localized damaging rains.  The heat continues across the Southern Plains while the Southeast should be near average temperature-wise.  Highs will range from over 100 in much of Texas and Oklahoma to 90 in the Southeast.  

Northeast
The Region will be generally dry except for rain and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic associated a frontal system. Heat and humidity from the Midwest continues into the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.  Most the region will be in the 90s. 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico  
Atlantic  
Tropical Storm Bret is moving toward the northeast
near 7 mph and this general heading with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Tropical Storm Bret could become a tropical depression by Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 75 miles from the center.
Area #1 - An elongated area of low pressure located
about 300 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or so before it reaches cooler waters. This system has a medium chance, 30 percent, of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves northeastward at around 20 mph.

Eastern Pacific
Hurricane Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with some decrease in forward speed. Hurricane Dora should move nearly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph, with higher gusts. Hurricane Dora is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Hurricane Dora could become a major hurricane by Thursday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday evening.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Tuesday, July 19, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (189 new fires)
New Large Fires: 3
Large Fires Contained: 5
Uncontained Large Fires: 17
Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
Type 2 IMT Committed: 4
States affected: NC, GA, TX, FL, OK, UT, NM, WY, and CA.

Wildfires
No significant activity

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary

The River remains at Moderate to Major Flood Stage at many locations and is forecast to remain high in much of Nebraska and Iowa until fall. No levee breaches or overtopping have occurred since July 11. The U.S. Coast Guard has extended the Missouri River closure for both commercial and recreational use. At this time, the river is closed from mile 226.3, near Glasgow, MO, to mile 550 near Gavins Point Dam.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) continues to provide extensive amounts of flood fight supplies (sandbags, automatic sandbag machines, pumps, porta-dam,) along with technical assistance to levee districts and communities in Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska.

Missouri River Basin Flooding
Dam Releases as of Monday, July 18 are as follows:
Fort Peck: 40,000 cfs
Garrison: 120,000 cfs
Oahe: 140,000 cfs
Big Bend: 140,000 cfs
Fort Randall: 156,000 cfs.
Gavins Point: 160,000 cfs

Missouri 
On July 14, 2011, the State of Missouri requested Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments for severe storms and flooding. FEMA Region VII is coordinating the dates and times of these assessments with the Missouri State Emergency Management Agency Disaster Recovery staff.

Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND

Current Situation
As of 1:00 a.m. EDT on July 19, the Souris River at Minot was below flood stage at 1,548.79 feet and is forecast to remain below flood stage for the forecast period.
Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs) remain open in Minot, ND (2) and Bismarck, ND (1). Two DRCs will open this week; one today in Berthold, ND and one in Sherwood, ND on Wednesday, July 20

North Dakota
Three shelters were open with 361 occupants as of midnight, July 18.

Major Heat Wave Continues, Expands Eastward By Midweek

The dangerous heat wave continues over the central United States and is expected to expand eastward during the week. Heat indexes in the triple digits were forecast across a large portion of the Midwest on Monday. The large area of high pressure responsible for the heat will expand eastward by midweek, with temperatures reaching the mid-90s in the Mid-Atlantic States as early as Wednesday. This dome of high pressure is forecast to dominate most of the eastern and central U.S. through the end of next week bringing excessive heat to much of the eastern half of the country except for the Northeast and southern Florida.

Midwest
The heat wave continues for much of the region, with hotter than average temperatures and humidity expected for most of the region with some relief starting Wednesday. Excessive heat warnings are in effect from the eastern Northern and Central Plains to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Highs will continue to range from the 90s near the Great Lakes to around 108 in southwestern Kansas and central South Dakota. Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to Mid-Atlantic today. Hail and wind will be the main severe threats.

Northeast
Heat and humidity from the Midwest will expand eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. Most areas will be in the 80s & 90s, with 70s in northern New York and Northern New England. Slight risk of severe thunderstorms into the Mid-Atlantic today.

South
Southeast will be hot and humid. Temperatures ranging in the 90s. The heat continues across the Southern Plains while the Southeast should be near average temperature-wise. Highs will range from around 70 from Tennessee to the 100s in much of Texas and Oklahoma. Rain and thunderstorms are forecast from central Texas to the Louisiana Gulf Coast and southern Florida.

West
Severe thunderstorms are possible over the Intermountain West to the western Northern Plains. Additional moisture drawn into the Southwest is forecast to increase monsoonal thunderstorms activity next few days. Rain and thunderstorms are forecast from the Rockies to the High Plains. Rain continues over the Pacific Northwest. Hotter than average temperatures continue for most areas east of the Continental Divide. Highs will range from around 60 along the Northern California Coast to the 110s in the deserts of southeastern California and southern Arizona. High fire danger is expected in parts of Nevada and Utah. Red Flag conditions are forecast from central California to Utah. Strong southerly winds up to 25 mph with gust possible.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico  
Atlantic  

Tropical Storm Bret – At 5:00 a.m. EDT on July 19, Tropical Storm Bret was located about 205 miles north-northeast of Great Abaco Island and 410 miles south of Cape Hatteras, NC, moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph. A turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed is expected in the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center.

Eastern Pacific

Tropical Storm Dora - At 5:00 a.m. EDT on July 19, Tropical Storm Dora was located about 300 miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico and moving west at 16 mph. A west to west northwest motion is expected during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours and Tropical Storm Dora is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.

Central Pacific

No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday evening.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Monday, July 18, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (151 new fires)
New Large Fires: 4
Large Fires Contained: 3
Uncontained Large Fires: 20
Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
Type 2 IMT Committed: 3
States affected: NC, GA, TX, FL, OK, NM, CO, OR, NV, UT, WY and CA.

Wildfires
No significant activity

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment #1 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1999-DR-TX
On July 18, 2011, Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1999-DR-TX, dated July 1, 2011, was amended adding Hazard Mitigation statewide.

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is constructing a 4.5 mile seepage berm to protect a wastewater treatment plant in Bellevue, NE. The Missouri River remains at Moderate to Major Flood Stage at many locations and is forecast to remain high in much of NE and IA until fall. The USACE, Omaha District, will temporarily halt releases from the regulating tunnels at Garrison Dam to perform a routine inspection of the tunnel walls Monday. The Bismarck-Mandan areas may see a slight reduction in the river stage. The anticipated stage reduction is estimated at less than two tenths of a foot.

Missouri River Basin Flooding
Dam Releases as of Monday, July 18 are as follows:
Fort Peck: 40,000 cfs
Garrison: 120,000 cfs
Oahe: 140,000 cfs
Big Bend: 140,000 cfs
Fort Randall: 156,000 cfs.
Gavins Point: 160,000 cfs

River levels continue to remain level or slowly decline across the Missouri River Basin.  However, the main stem of the Missouri River remains at Moderate to Major Flood Stage in many locations.

Missouri 
There are structural concerns for 4 Federal and 14 non-Federal levees in MO.

Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND
Current Situation
As of 10:00 p.m. EDT on July 17, the Souris River at Minot was below flood stage at 1,548.88 feet. The river is forecast to stabilize at this level for the next 48-72 hours. As of 10:00 p.m. EDT on July 17, flow from Lake Darling Dam into the Souris River was at 4,590 cfs.
Minot and Sawyer (Ward County), and Velva (McHenry County), ND
Boil water orders have been lifted for all of the 4 designated areas outside the flooded area.
The removal of temporary dikes/levees is underway in Minot.

North Dakota
Four DRCs and one mobile DRC are operational in North Dakota.
Three shelters are open with 390 occupants.

Major Heat Wave Continues, Expands Eastward By Midweek

Very hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue through the middle of the week. Prolonged heat and humidity have lead to very uncomfortable and potentially dangerous conditions, which will continue through the middle of this week. High temperatures through Wednesday will be in the middle 90s to lower 100s. These temperatures, in addition to high humidity, will combine to create heat indices of 105 to 115 degrees each afternoon. Overnight heat indices will only fall to around 80 degrees which will not provide much relief from the uncomfortable conditions.

Midwest
The heat wave continues for much of the region, with hotter than average temperatures and humidity expected for most of the region through Wednesday. Excessive heat warnings are in effect from the eastern Northern and Central Plains to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Highs will range from the 80s near the Great Lakes to around 105 in southwestern Kansas and central South Dakota. Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Ohio Valley through the Great Lakes, into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains today and tonight. Hail and wind will be the main severe threats along with locally heavy rainfall. Under 1 ½ inches of rain is forecast for the Great Lakes today.

Northeast
Severe thunderstorms are possible over the New England and the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Hail and wind will be the main severe threats from this system. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. Most areas will be in the 80s & 90s, with 70s in northern New York and Northern New England.

South
The heat continues across the Southern Plains while the Southeast should have near average temperatures. Highs will range from around 80 in the higher elevations of the North Carolina mountains to the 100s in much of Texas and Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from West Texas to the central Gulf Coast and across the Florida Peninsula. The greatest chance of storms should be along the central Gulf Coast, with locally heavy rainfall up to 1 ½ inches.

West
Hotter than average temperatures is forecast for most areas east of the Continental Divide. Highs will range from around 60 along the Northern California Coast to the 110s in the deserts of southeastern California and southern Arizona. High fire danger is expected in parts of Nevada and Utah. Red Flag conditions are forecast from central Nevada to central California. Strong southerly winds up to 25 mph with gust exceeding 30 mph is possible. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the Rockies to the High Plains. Showers are expected to move into the Pacific Northwest into tonight.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico  
Atlantic
Tropical Storm Bret – At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Bret was located about 65 miles northwest of Great Abaco Island and moving toward the east at 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Bret is expected to be moving north-northwestward later today. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.

Eastern Pacific
Invest 94 – At 2:00 a.m. EDT, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 250 miles south of the border of El Salvador and Guatemala has increased during the past few hours. Upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for development and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two. This system has a high chance, 60 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 10 mph.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday evening.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Sunday, July 17, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (94 new fires)
New Large Fires: 5
Large Fires Contained: 5
Uncontained Large Fires: 23
Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
Type 2 IMT Committed: 3
States affected: NC, GA, TX, FL, OK, NM, NV, UT, OR and CA.

Wildfires
No significant activity.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Severe Weather – Midwest – July 11 – 12, 2011

During the early morning hours of July 11, 2011, severe storms brought widespread power outages for northern Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. Power has been restored in Indiana, and restoration continues in Illinois and Michigan. Flood warnings remain in effect for several locations along the Minnesota River in Minnesota and the Illinois River in Illinois. No significant impacts have been reported and there are no rivers in major flood stage within the Region. There have been no unmet needs or requests for FEMA assistance.

Illinois
As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, approximately 97,000 customers remain without power (from a high of 868,000). Full restoration is expected by Saturday, July 16, 2011. One shelter is open with 65 occupants.

Michigan
As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, less than 5,000 customers remain without power; full restoration is expected early Friday morning.

Ohio 
On July 13, 2011, the President signed Major Disaster Declaration, FEMA-4002-DR, as a result of Severe Storms and Flooding that occurred April 4-May 15, 2011.  The declaration approves Public Assistance for twenty-one counties, and Hazard Mitigation statewide. Full power restoration is complete.

Iowa
Less than 1,000 customers remain without power in central Iowa. Two ARC shelters are open with 15 occupants.

Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary

Overview
The high flood waters have reached a steady state throughout most of the Missouri River Basin and the focus has shifted as releases from reservoirs have begun to decline is on monitoring and reinforcing existing levees. Releases from Fort Peck, Garrison, Oahe, and Big Bend dams are schedule for small decreases this week which will cause water levels to decline as less water is moved throughout the system. U.S. Army Core of Engineers (USACE) continue to monitor and complete flood fight efforts to reinforce levees along the river in an effort to keep record levels of water in the system from causing additional damage.

Missouri River Basin Flooding
Dam Releases as of Thursday, July 14:

• Fort Peck: 45,000 cfs
• Garrison: 135,000 cfs
• Oahe: 145,000 cfs. The lake is below the spillway gates and expected to continue to decline.
• Big Bend: 145,000 cfs.
• Fort Randall: 156,000 cfs.
• Gavins Point: 160,000 cfs (since July 12); USACE expects to reduce the outflow before August

River levels continue to decline across the region.  The main stem of the Missouri River remains at Moderate to Major Flood Stage in many locations.

Missouri 
Seventeen levees have overtopped or breached since the beginning of this current flooding event.  There have been no new breaches/overtopping since July 11. Missouri DOT reports 55 flood related road closures.

Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND
Current Situation
As of 2:30 a.m. EDT on July 15, the Souris River at Minot was at 1,549.87 feet (Flood Stage) and is expected to continue to recede. The river is forecast to fall below Flood Stage on July 16. Releases from Lake Darling Dam into the Souris River are currently at 4,500 cfs. USACE staff has coordinated with state and local officials to finalize the debris management plan and overall debris strategies.

Minot and Sawyer (Ward County), and Velva (McHenry County), ND
Amendment #6 was approved for FEMA-1981-DR-ND, effective July 13, 2011. The Amendment adds Barnes, Ramsey, and Richland Counties and the Spirit Lake Nation for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance). In Minot (Ward County), the Boil Order has been lifted for residents in some areas of the City limits. The City is working on isolating and testing the other areas within Minot; however, residents will need to conserve water in all areas of Minot and the surrounding areas. A Temporary Housing Unit (THU) staging area was secured in Velva.

North Dakota
Roadways are reopening and residents are being allowed to return to their homes and businesses during daylight hours. Mandatory evacuations continue to be lifted as the water level recedes. Twelve of Minot’s 25 lift stations are flooded and are not pumping. However, all other lifts are operational and the City’s waste water treatment system is functioning. The North Dakota National Guard (NDNG) has 227 personnel activated in Minot, including 120 Minnesota National Guardsmen acquired through emergency management assistant compact to augment the NDNG. Three shelters are open supporting 332 occupants.

Significant National Weather

South 
Hot and humid weather will continue in the Southern and Central Plains, high temperatures are anticipated to be between 95 to 105 degrees. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected for the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast. The heavy precipitation may increase the potential of flash flooding in parts of Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina.

Midwest
Rain and thunderstorms are expected for the Northern and Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. These impending storms could develop into severe weather capable of producing strong winds and hail. Isolated tornadoes are possible in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Triple digit temperatures are forecast in northern Kansas.

West 
Rain and isolated thunderstorms producing strong winds and hail is possible in the Pacific Northwest, and parts of Montana, northeast Colorado and New Mexico.
 
Northeast 
Most of the Region will experience dry and pleasant seasonal weather from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. (NOAA, NWS and various media sources) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean /Gulf of Mexico
There is a low chance (10 percent) of the weather over the southwestern Caribbean Sea becoming a tropical storm during the next 48 hours. Regardless, of development heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America during the next few days.

Eastern Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected at this time.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday evening.

Western / South Pacific:
Typhoon (TY) 08W (Ma-On) is located approximately 290 miles south-southeast of Iwo To, Japan. The typhoon has moved past all U.S. territories and continues to move further west. The typhoon is moving west-northwest at 12 mph and this general motion will continue for the next 36-48 hours.. Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph with gusts up to 144 mph.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Thursday, July 14, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (145 new fires)
New Large Fires: 4
Large Fires Contained: 4
Uncontained Large Fires: 19
Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
Type 2 IMT Committed: 3
States affected: NC, GA, TX, OK, AR, MS, NM, AZ, and CO.
 
Wildfires
Texas
Nolan County Complex Fire – FEMA-2937-FM-TX (approved July 11, 2011)
The fire has consumed 3,880 acres and is 50% contained. The fire is located approximately 50 yards from the town of Sweetwater. Two hundred homes are threatened; 30 homes were evacuated; however, no residences have been destroyed.

New Mexico
Las Conchas Fire – FEMA-2933-FM-NM (approved June 26, 2011)
The fire has consumed 150,041 acres and is 61% contained. The fire is located twelve miles southwest of Los Alamos, NM. Eight injuries and no fatalities have been reported. The fire has destroyed 63 residences and 49 outbuildings. Approximately 565 residences, outbuildings and commercial buildings remain threatened. Warm and dry weather with some strong winds and isolated thunderstorms is forecast for the remainder of the week. The forecast weather will generate more fire activity. Flash flooding and debris flow threats exist in burn areas across New Mexico. Two Burned Area Emergency Response Teams remain on scene. The Valles Caldera National Preserve reopened the staging area effective July 13. The staging area was closed since June 26 due to evacuations. The Federal Aviation Administration has restricted airspace in the Los Alamos area to provide a safe environment for firefighting aircraft operations. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers facilities at Cochiti Lake are closed through July19

Disaster Declaration Activity

Puerto Rico
On July 14, 2011, a Major Disaster Declaration, FEMA-4004-DR-PR, was declared for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico as a result of severe storms, flooding, mudslides and landslides that occurred May 20 – June 8, 2011. Public Assistance for 12 municipalities and Hazard Mitigation for all municipalities in the Commonwealth were approved.

New York
The Governor of New York has requested a Major Disaster Declaration for the State of New York as a result of severe storms and flooding during the period of May 9 – 30, 2011. The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance for Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chemung, Clinton, Delaware, Essex, Steuben, Warren, and Wyoming Counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.