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Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather

West:
A cold front moving into the Pacific Northwest today will bring light rain from Washington to northern most California. Midweek, the front will move throughout the Northwest ending in showers along the West Coast, but bringing showers over the northern Rockies. Thursday and Friday, snow, rain and colder air will move into the Rockies and high Plains.
Midwest:
Several upper-level disturbances will move southward through the eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley, producing scattered light showers from eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin to Missouri. Warm temperatures across the Midwest will accelerate the melting of any residual snow. Rivers across the eastern Dakotas and Iowa are moving into major flood stage. Thursday and Friday, a cold front will move across the region from the Great Lakes to Kansas, bringing rain north of the front, especially over the Plains. The rain will begin to change to snow over South Dakota and western Nebraska as colder air arrives. The storm and rain will then move southward and eastward into Missouri, Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley over the weekend.
South:
A small storm will move into the Gulf today bringing showers in Texas. Temperatures will range from near average to as much as 15 degrees below average in the south. Wednesday into Thursday, a Gulf stream system will move eastward across Florida and form a storm off the Southeast Coast. Several dry upper-level systems will move southward from the Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, which will bring some showers for the Southeast region. Friday, a new storm moving out of the Rockies will bring showers to Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Ahead of a cold front, showers and thunderstorms will move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday and into the Southeast on Sunday.
Northeast:
Rivers will start to recede this week, although it will take some time for the rivers to recede in southern New England, where the rain has continued for a longer period of time. The region will experience mild temperatures through Saturday. Sunday, a storm from out of the Midwest may possibly bring more rain to the region. (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Hydro Meteorological Prediction Center, and various media sources) 

East Coast Flooding

Federal Actions:
FEMA’s Response Watch Center is monitoring.
Region I activated to Level III.
Region II LNO deployed to the West Virginia EOC.
Region III Joint State/Federal Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs are ongoing in West Virginia; the PDAs are a result o f this past weekend’s flooding event.  There have been no requests for Federal assistance.\

Northeast Flooding

 The rain of the past few days had finally come to an end across most of New England. However, many of the smaller rivers and streams remain in minor to moderate flood. There are also a few of the small and mid-sized rivers and streams that have yet to crest. The Charles River in Medway, MA the Ipswich River in Ipswich, MA and the Taunton River in Bridgewater, MA have yet to crest. The flood warning for streams and small rivers has been extended into Tuesday morning.

Widespread flooding, some of it moderate to major, will continue through Tuesday across much of
eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The rain has ended across the Merrimack basin this evening and is exiting Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.

The Pawtuxet River at Cranston, RI which is in record flood has recently crested and will begin a slow recession. The Shawsheen River also in record flood is cresting and will begin to slowly recede toward daybreak.

Midwest Flooding

Region VIII
RRCC activated to Level III. The Region continues to closely monitor the potential for major flooding for the Dakotas. Eleven member IMAT team deployed to South Dakota to support spring flooding; advanced planning. Fifteen member IMAT team deployed to North Dakota to manage FEMA-3309-EM-ND. Denver MERS communication support will be en route to Bismarck, ND later today, March 16. FEMA logistics is preparing to establish an Incident Support Base (ISB) in Grand Forks, ND. ND will be requiring support for 20,000 people for five days along with generators and shuttle drivers.

FEMA and NOAA Renew Partnership to Encourage Flood Safety

Washington, D.C. –Federal Emergency Management Agency  and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that they are again working together during Flood Safety Awareness Week (March 15-19) to raise awareness of the dangers associated with flooding and steps to protect against damage.  Floods are the most common, costly and deadly severe weather related disaster in the U.S. NOAA will announce this year’s official spring flood outlook on March 16, and an unusually wet and snowy winter in many communities will likely increase the potential for spring flood events.
To help individuals better understand flood risks nationwide and steps that can be taken to protect lives and property, FEMA and NOAA have created an interactive “flood impact map” that features localized, searchable data about the scope and severity of flood events in recent years.  The map is available at www.floodsmart.gov/noaa.

Floods threaten lives when careful safety precautions are not followed in a flood event.  More than half of all flood-related deaths occur in motor vehicles, prompting NOAA to stress motor safety in flood situations and adopt the slogan, “Turn Around, Don’t Drown!” Roadway flooding can be deceptively deep, and it only takes six inches of water to lose control of a vehicle. It is imperative that people use extreme caution when driving at night, when it is difficult to determine if a road is flooded. It is also important to avoid areas that you know are already flooded, especially if the water is flowing fast.
“It floods somewhere in the United States or its territories nearly every day of the year, killing approximately 100 people on average and causing nearly $7 billion in damages,” said Jack Hayes, Director of the National Weather Service. “Awareness, preparedness and action are the key ingredients to protecting lives and property when floods threaten.”
To help community decision-makers and residents understand their risk, monitor threatening situations and take action when warranted, NOAA produces river and flood forecasts and warnings. Flood forecasts are available at www.weather.gov/water, and are also broadcast over NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards.

FEMA’s National Flood Insurance program ensures communities across the country have access to affordable flood insurance.  The program makes coverage available to renters, homeowners, and business owners through approximately 85 insurance companies in more than 20,800 participating communities nationwide. Flood coverage can be purchased for properties both in, and outside of, the highest risk areas. A quarter of all flood insurance claims come from moderate-to-low-risk areas. In these areas, lower-cost Preferred Risk Policies (PRPs) can cost as little as $119 a year.  Individuals can learn more about seasonal flood risks and what to do to prepare by visiting the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) FloodSmart.gov Web site, or by calling 1-800-427-2419.

For information on how to prepare for flooding and other emergencies, visit www.ready.gov.

For additional information on National Flood Safety Awareness and some of the many ways floods can occur, the hazards associated with floods, and what you can do to save life and property, go to: http://www.floodsafety.noaa.gov/ 

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

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Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather

West:
An upper level low over the Four Corners area will produce additional snow over the San Juan and Sangre De Cristo ranges. The system will then gradually slide eastward into Texas and the Southern Plains.
The latest storm moving in off the Pacific will produce rain along the coasts of Washington and Oregon. Tuesday, the system will produce rain and mountain snow across the Cascades and northernmost Sierra. Snow levels will range from over 5,000 feet in the Washington Cascades to 7,000 feet in northern California.

Midwest:
Under a ridge of high pressure the region will be generally dry.
The system moving out of the West will produce a few showers and snow showers in southwest Kansas. Light rain and drizzle are forecast in the Dakotas and western Minnesota from an upper level low. Tuesday, this system will move to the southeast producing showers in the Upper Midwest, Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley.

South:
The low off the Mid-Atlantic will bring widespread cloudiness to the region but precipitation will be limited to the Appalachian Mountains. The upper level low moving out of New Mexico will produce up to an inch of rain in Texas along with few thunderstorms. The Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles may see a few snow showers Tuesday, the precipitation will move southeastward to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Northeast:
The low offshore the Mid-Atlantic will produce one more day of precipitation across the region. Up to one inch of additional rainfall is forecast for southern Maine, southeast New Hampshire, eastern Massachusetts, eastern Long Island and coastal New Jersey. Ongoing river flooding is expected from New Jersey to New England. Onshore winds with gusts to 40 mph are expected along coastal areas of New England with resulting coastal flooding and rough surf. Wet snow will fall over the higher elevations from Virginia to Maine. Precipitation will end on Tuesday as the low moves out into the Atlantic. (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Hydro Meteorological Prediction Center, and various media sources) 

East Coast Flooding

There are numerous Watches, Warnings and Advisories in effect (See http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ for the latest information).

Federal:
FEMA’s Response Watch Center and Regions I, II, III and IV are monitoring.
Region II LNO deployed to the West Virginia EOC.
Region III will start joint State/Federal PDAs today in West Virginia. The PDAs are a result of the flooding event this past weekend and will examine Individual Assistance and Public Assistance. 

Midwest Flooding

Federal
On March 14, 2010 the President declared an Emergency Declaration for the State of North Dakota (FEMA-3309-EM) as a result of flooding that occurred February 26, 2010, and continuing.  The declaration provides Public Assistance for 18 counties and the Spirit Lake Reservation. Specifically, FEMA is authorized to provide emergency protective measures (Category B), including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program at 75 percent Federal funding.
FEMA logistics is working to establish an Incident Support Base (ISB) in Grand Forks, ND.
USACE contracts should be in place to begin levee construction in the City of Fargo tomorrow. Work will begin in Lisbon on Tuesday, March 16, 2010.

North Dakota
ND SEOC is at Level III (Monitoring Activation); Mon-Fri 7:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m.
The State has activated the National Guard to assist in levee construction and traffic control. 

Flooding Outlook:
Missouri and James River Basins
In general, at least some minor to moderate flooding remains a near certainty in all basins and the risk of moderate to major flooding is substantial. Even though the probability of major flooding has slightly lessened again in the model for Apple Creek and the Knife River at Hazen, these two sites, along with the upper James River Basin, continue to be the most at risk of major flooding.
Souris River Basin
Small stream flooding anticipated around the Minot area, and river flooding farther downstream as snowmelt water enters the Souris River. So while a high degree of certainty exists for spring flooding, the severity will still be determined by the timing, location and amount of March precipitation.
Red River Basin
2010 flooding will likely be similar to that experienced during the spring of 2009.  Locations that have a 90 percent or greater risk of reaching or exceeding major flood stage are Fargo, Abercrombie, Lisbon, Harwood and West Fargo. Significant overland flooding is likely for low-lying areas outside of primary river flood plains. Ice jam flooding will likely affect ice jam prone areas of rivers and streams.
Devils Lake Basin
The current probabilistic outlooks are now targeting a better than 90 percent risk of a two-foot rise this spring, and nearly a 40 percent chance of a three-foot rise on both Devils Lake and Stump Lake. 
Two good links for more information are:
Red River flooding:  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fgf 
James River flooding:  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bis (FEMA HQ, Region VIII, NOAA’s NWS) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

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Emergency Declaration number 3309 declared on Mar 14, 2010

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather

West:
A low pressure system and associated front will track across the Four Corners states producing rain and snow. Up to a foot of snow could fall in the Wasatch Mountains of Utah and the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. On Monday, the next system will move ashore the Pacific Northwest, producing showers and mountain snow inland.

Midwest:
The storm over the Mid-Atlantic will produce rain and rain showers across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. On Tuesday, an upper-level disturbance moving out of the Dakotas will result in a few showers in the Mississippi Valley.

Northeast:
The low centered over the Mid-Atlantic will result in rain, flooding, strong winds and heavy wet mountain snow for much of the region except for Northern Maine. There are numerous Watches, Warnings and Advisories in effect (See http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ for the latest information). With an onshore flow, rainfall totals could reach four inches in coastal New England, in addition, high surf and coastal flooding is forecast. The tight pressure gradient north of the low will result in windy conditions across New England and wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph across Cape Cod and Nantucket. Six inches of heavy, wet snow is forecast for the higher elevations across eastern New York, southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire. On Monday, the storm will drop one more inch of rain over coastal areas before finally moving out to sea.

South:
The storm over the Mid-Atlantic will produce showers across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. On Monday, the precipitation in the Four Corners states will move into Texas, Oklahoma and the Southern Plains.  (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Hydro Meteorological Prediction Center, and various media sources) 

Potential East Coast Flooding

 Federal:
FEMA’s Response Watch Center and Regions I, II, III and IV are monitoring. Region II LNO deployed to the West Virginia EOC.
West Virginia
The State EOC is fully activated (Level I), with National Guard continuing to activate and deploy. Multiple evacuations are ongoing throughout West Virginia due to rising waters. The State has confirmed one fatality connected to the event. There is an active search for a missing swift-water rescuer due to a capsized boat while in the process of rescuing citizens in Beaver (Raleigh County).  Currently there are 68 people sheltered throughout four counties. Approximately 12,000 residents are without power through seven counties.

Governor Joe Manchin declared a State of Emergency on March 13, 2010 for 34 counties due to anticipated flooding caused by rainfall and snowmelt. The State of Emergency will be in effect for the following counties: Barbour, Berkeley, Brooke, Cabell, Grant, Greenbrier, Hampshire, Hancock, Hardy, Jackson, Jefferson, Marion, Marshall, Mason, Mercer, Mineral, Monongalia, Monroe, Morgan, Nicholas, Ohio, Pendleton, Pleasants, Pocahontas, Preston, Randolph, Summers, Tucker, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Webster, Wetzel and Wood. The declaration will remain in effect until April 11, unless extended or rescinded by further proclamation by the governor.  No request for Federal assistance at this time.
Maryland
The EOC is at Level II in preparation to potential flooding.  Several water rescue teams have been pre-deployed in the event flash flooding occurs. Approximately 22,000 customers are without power. Locust Grove (small town of approx. 100) near La Vale in Allegany County has been evacuated because of potential flooding concerns.  Evacuated residents did not need sheltering.
No request for Federal assistance at this time.
Pennsylvania
EOC is at Level III in preparation to potential flooding.  Several areas of minor to moderate flooding are occurring, notably areas in and around Somerset County in the west and Lehigh County in the east. Three known shelters open across the Commonwealth. Approximately 100,000 customers are without power. Reports of some homes damaged from high winds in and around Berks County. No request for Federal assistance at this time.
Virginia
EOC is at Increased Readiness.  Flooding has been reporting in southwestern Virginia, notably in Pulaski County where the Sheriff’s Department had to evacuate due to flood concerns.  Other areas, such as Bland County are also starting to experience flooding. No request for Federal assistance at this time.
New Jersey
The EOC is at Level III. There are reports of scattered power outages across New Jersey. Approximately 194,000 customers are without power. Request for Federal assistance is not anticipated. All partners at the local, state and Federal level are continuing to monitor the events.
New York
EOC is at Steady State. There are reports of approximately 32,000 customers without power across New York. No request for Federal assistance at this time.

Brush Fire on Big Island of Hawaii

 Hawaii State Civil Defense reports Hawaii County EOC deactivated at 4:16 a.m. EST on March 13, after Kawaihae Rd. was reopened.  HSCD has not received an update as to the status of the fire, but open source reports that Hawaii County Fire Dept. Deputy Chief Glen Honda stated, “It’s not under control it’s not out of control, but not considered under control and they’re continuing bulldozing breaks to get it totally contained.” Residents were allowed to return to their homes at 11:00 p.m. EST on March 12 (Region IX, open source) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity in the United States.

On Sunday, March 14, 2010, at 3:08 a.m. EDT, an earthquake measuring 6.6 magnitude occurred 175 miles northeast of Tokyo, Japan at a depth of 16.4 miles. There were no reports of damage or injury and no tsunami was generated.  (USGS) 

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

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Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather

West:
The storm system in the region has moved inland over the Intermountain West and as a result precipitation along the California coast will end this evening. Up to a foot of snow is forecast from the Cascades through the central Sierra Nevada.  Gusty winds are expected along the entire Sierra Nevada range. The precipitation will spread eastward this evening, extending from Montana to New Mexico. A front moving ashore will produce additional rain in the Pacific Northwest.

Midwest:
The storm over the eastern portion of the nation will result in rain from the Wisconsin southward to Arkansas with the heaviest precipitation over the Ohio River Valley. The region will be on a warming trend next week and records may be broken.  The high temperatures will accelerate melting of the existing snowpack.

Northeast:
A complex low pressure system will produce extensive precipitation, localized flooding, gusty winds, dangerous surf, coastal flooding, and beach erosion from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. The Mid-Atlantic will see three to four inches of rain and Flood Watches, Warnings and Advisories are in effect from West Virginia to Southern New England (See http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ for the latest information). Heavy rain falling on the snowpack in the central Appalachians will produce river and stream flooding. Higher elevations from the Catskills of New York, southern Vermont and western Massachusetts, will receive a wintry mix of freezing rain and snow. Sunday, the system will move into New England with an additional three inches of rain.

South:
The storm in the Northeast will produce gusty winds and rain showers from Mississippi to the Carolinas. (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Hydro Meteorological Prediction Center, and various media sources) 

Brush Fire on Big Island of Hawaii

 Yesterday Hawaii County reported to Hawaii State Civil Defense that they had a wildfire that spread to over 600 acres. The fire was expected to burn through the night.  High wind gust up to 40 mph were making it hard to contain the fire.  Two evacuation centers have been opened. 

• Kawaihae Rd. from Waiaka Rd. to Queen Kaahumanu highway remains closed
• Early reports mention that several abandoned buildings have been burnt
• High winds, gusts up to 40 mph, are making it difficult to contain
• People evacuated from Kawaihae Village and Kawaihae Transitional Homes. Unknown number of people
• Hawaii County has set up two evacuation centers, one at Waimea Community Center with three occupants and the other at Waikoloa Elementary School with 10 occupants
• Hawaii County Fire Chief Glen Honda reporting fire is not contained, but is not expanding either
• Communities near Hapuna Gold Course had evacuated at the recommendation of fire officials (Region IX, open source) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

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Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather

West:
A frontal system will bring precipitation to much of the West Coast. Lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest will receive one to two inches of rain, while higher elevations will receive a foot or more of new snow. Coastal areas of Washington and Oregon will be windy, with gusts to 60 mph. Rain and mountain snow will gradually move southward to southern California by tonight.
Midwest:
A low pressure system will produce a wintery mix of rain and snow showers from the Dakotas and Kansas to the Great Lakes. A frontal system will produce rain showers and thunderstorms from the Central Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Severe thunderstorms are defined as having one or more of the following: peak winds in excess of 58 miles per hour, hail at least 1 inch in diameter, a tornado or a flash flood.
South:
A cold front moving across the region will deliver heavy rain and thunderstorms to the southeast today and tomorrow. Severe thunderstorms are forecast from eastern Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
Northeast:
A developing low pressure system will produce significant precipitation (three to four inches) over the Mid-Atlantic today and tomorrow. The precipitation and resulting melting of the snowpack will  produce flooding; Flood Watches, Warnings and Advisories are in effect from West Virginia to Southern New England. See http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ for the latest information. The heavy precipitation and threat of flooding will move into New England tonight through Sunday. (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Hydro Meteorological Prediction Center, and various media sources)

Daylight Saving Time 2010

 Daylight Saving Time 2010 will happen on Sunday, March 14 at 2:00 a.m., when the clock is moved forward one hour. The time change means the loss of an hour, but the sun will shine longer each day. Studies by the U.S. Department of Transportation in 1975 show that Daylight Saving Time trims the entire country’s electricity usage by about one percent each day.  This small but significant amount is the result of less electricity used for lighting and appliances. Daylight Saving Time 2010 is not observed in Arizona, Hawaii, Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Daylight Saving Time 2010 ends at 2:00 a.m. on the first Sunday of November  (USDOT and media sources) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Cyclone 19P
At 10:00 p.m. EST on March 11, the center of Tropical Cyclone 19P was about 558 miles west northwest of American Samoa, moving westward at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph, gusting to 52 mph. The system is forecast to turn to the south and begin to gradually accelerate in the next few days. On the forecast track,     Tropical Cyclone 19P does not pose a threat to American Samoa or other U.S. interests.  (JTWC, FEMA HQ) 

Earthquake Activity

USA
No significant earthquake activity in the United States. (USGS).

Chile
Strong aftershocks continue to rock central Chile following the 8.8M earthquake that occurred Feb 27. On Mar 11 the three strongest quakes measured magnitude 6.9, 6.7 and 6.0. The Chilean Navy Oceanography Service issued a tsunami warning at 12:08 p.m. local time and called for evacuations along the coast; however, the alert was lifted later in the day. (USGS, USAID) 

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

New Jersey
Amendments to FEMA-1873-DR-NJ and FEMA-1867-DR-NJ were approved March 10, 2010 to reflect the appointment of William L. Vogel to replace Stephen M. DeBlasio as the FCO for the two Major Disaster Declarations. (FEMA HQ) 

Major Disaster Declaration number 1887 declared on Mar 10, 2010

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather

South:
Showers and thunderstorms will move eastward from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Carolinas and Florida. Rain across Florida may be accompanied by locally severe thunderstorms; some parts of central Florida may see over four inches of rain by Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible near the Gulf Coast, from southern Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle.

Midwest:
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected for much of the South Central U.S., from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Southeast today and continuing into the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians on Friday. A few thunderstorms over southern Illinois, southern Indiana and western Kentucky could become strong to severe. Light snow will develop over parts of the Central Plains to the Northern Plains and tapering off to parts of eastern Nebraska by Friday evening. Scattered rain will fall from northern Minnesota to western Missouri. Rain and embedded thunderstorms are forecast from southern Wisconsin to Kentucky.

West:
Moderate to heavy rain will develop along the West Coast from central California to Washington. Light snow is expected over the higher elevations, extending into parts of the Northern Intermountain region. Over a foot of snow is possible in the Cascades by Friday evening. Light snow will also develop over parts of the Southern and Central Rockies.

Northeast: 
Light showers will develop across West Virginia and western Virginia during the afternoon. Rain is expected across the region on Friday and will continue through the weekend. The combination of rain, melting snow with high water content, and warmer temperatures will increase flooding from West Virginia to New England, especially around creeks, streams and rivers near the Appalachians. (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Hydro Meteorological Prediction Center, and various media sources) 

Flooding Increasing in NCRFC Forecast Area (as of March 10, 2010)

Rain will continue across the North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) forecast region for the next few days. The heaviest daily rain totals are expected by Friday morning with amounts around a half to one inch across parts of Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, northern Indiana, and lower Michigan.

Widespread flooding continues to increase as rain and warmer temperatures continue to impact the region. At this time, the most significant flooding is focused in Iowa although the area of concern will likely increase as several days of rainfall is expected to help melt any remaining snowpack and contribute runoff to the system.

Moderate to major flooding is observed or forecast on rivers and streams in Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and Illinois. Moderate flooding is forecast for parts of the Mississippi River along the state borders of Illinois and Missouri. Minor flooding is occurring or forecast in parts of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin.  These forecasts may increase as the forecast rainfall amounts and placement become clearer in the next couple of days.

By the end of the week, it is likely that conditions will be in place to start causing significant rises in streams further north in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and lower Michigan. In addition, ice jam potential still remains on many of our rivers, especially in northern Illinois, Iowa, and the rest of our northern-most locations.  Ice jams have been reported over the past couple of days in southern Iowa. 

The NCRFC is extending operational hours, with a hydrologist coming on duty at 4:00 a.m. today.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river forecasts, precipitation, and all hydrometeorological information in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC web page at: http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc. (NOAA’s NWS NCRFC) 

Ice Jams Complicate Spring Flooding Across the United States

 

As temperatures rise across the U.S., snowmelt and heavy spring rains increase the threat of seasonal flooding. However, warm temperatures over the past weekend brought residents in southeast Iowa another threat, ice jams. Ice jams are expected to affect many rivers across the Plains, portions of the Mississippi Valley, Midwest and New England this spring. 

On March 10, 2010 residents and local officials in Nebraska began coping with the threat of two ice jams colliding and flooding homes along the Loop River in Nebraska. 
An ice jam is an accumulation of ice in a channel that restricts the flow of water. This flow restriction can lead to rapid and substantial increases in river levels upstream of the jam and equally substantial decreases in river levels downstream. Ice jams can cause severe local flooding and disrupt navigation, municipal water supplies, and hydropower operations. When they break up and flow downstream, they may erode river beds and banks, destroy wildlife habitat and damage structures such as bridges and dams. Ice jams can also damage stream channels and improvements so that overall vulnerability to flooding is increased.

After a few days of warm temperatures, ice will begin to melt and can create flows of partially broken ice or ice jams that complicate the flooding potential by acting as a dam, obstructing the flow of water downstream. These ice jams can create rapid release of water, creating flash flooding in affected areas.

In many northern regions ice covers the rivers and lakes annually. The annual freeze up and break up commonly occur without major flooding. However, some communities face serious ice jam threats every year, while others experience ice jam induced flooding at random intervals. Ice jams have been reported most frequently in Montana and New York.

Although the actual time period of flooding may be short compared to open water flood events lasting days to weeks, significant damage and loss of life can result.

Ice jams in the United States cause approximately $125 million in damages annually, including an estimated $50 million in personal property damage and $25 million in operation and maintenance costs to USACE navigation, flood control, and channel stabilization structures. Ice-jam-related damage to river training structures costs millions of dollars each year.

For more details on ice jam flooding and their impact go to: http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/icejams/ or http://www.noaawatch.gov/themes/flooding2.php. (NOAA, USACE) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President signed Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1887-DR for the State of South Dakota on March 10, 2010 for Severe Winter Storm that occurred January 20-26.  The declaration provides for Public Assistance for 29 counties and those portions of the Cheyenne River Indian Reservation, Sisseton-Wahpeton Indian Reservation, and Standing Rock Indian Reservation that lie within those counties. All counties and Tribes within the State of South Dakota are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. The FCO is Nancy M. Casper of the National FCO Program.(FEMA HQ)